Spurs' Defensive Woes in Context
This is the first of three preseason articles in the 'The Run-Up' series, which examines what Spurs need to do to improve in the coming season.
The Tottenham ‘high line’ was something of a punditry and fan obsession last season. Risky! Daring! Dangerous! Mad! Naive! But more than anything, it’s what analysts usually invoked to explain how Spurs managed to concede a dispiriting 61 goals.
The volatility that Spurs’ high line introduced into matches—at least putatively—became something of a running joke, albeit a pleasant one, because Tottenham’s attacking style of play not only resulted—at least putatively—in 61 goals conceded, but also in 74 goals scored. It was end-to-end football, always a fun watch (at least putatively).
Last season marked the second in a row in which Spurs did something rather unique in Premier League history, both scoring and conceding more than 60 goals. They also did it in 2022-23, in which their 63 goals conceded was the 6th worst defensive record in the league (just 5 fewer than relegated Leicester City), while their 70 goals scored made them the 5th most prolific attacking side in the league.
But something interesting happened between the 2022-23 and the 2023-24 Premier League seasons, and it says a lot about where Spurs are as a club going into 2024-25.
The floodgates opened in 2023-24
As I noted, when Spurs scored 70 and conceded 63 in 2022-23, they became just the second side in Premier League history both to score and to concede more than 60 goals in a season. The first, of course, was also Spurs, in 2007-08.
But when Spurs scored 74 and conceded 61 in 2023-24, turning that ‘Spursy’ trick once more, it was no longer original.
In fact, last season, four other teams—West Ham, Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Newcastle—joined Spurs in a scoring and conceding feat that had only been done twice in Premier League history.
What’s more, only six teams—Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Everton, Crystal Palace, and Manchester United—managed to concede fewer than 60 goals last season. That means 14 teams conceded 60 or more goals last season. By contrast, in 2022-23, just six teams conceded 60 or more goals, the same number as in 2021-22, and one more than the five teams who conceded 60 or more goals in 2020-21.
This is all to be expected in the context of goals per game skyrocketing in the Premier League last season.
Maybe not so naive…
We can explain this significant uptick in goals in a few different ways, including that as teams make use of the five-substitution rule and refs crack down on time-wasting by putting time back on the clock, we’re just seeing more minutes of actual football with fresher players tactically introduced into games, allowing for less sitting off and more attacking intent later in games. The number of comeback wins and late goals scored would suggest as much.
But I suspect there are broader tactical reasons for the goal uptick as well. One of those reasons is teams really are playing higher lines and doing more high pressing and counterpressing, not just Spurs and our ‘naive’ manager (who kept us hovering at 4th-5th year in his first Premier League season, despite multiple injury and suspension crises). Throughout the league, teams are winning the ball much higher on the pitch than in seasons past, starting attacks higher.
Furthermore, we’re seeing high turnovers ending in shots.
So it makes sense we’ve also seen more fast breaks than in previous seasons, since more pressing and more aggressive counterpressing necessarily mean committing personnel higher up the pitch and leaving space in behind for opposition to counter into.
The takeaway for Spurs
Taken together, what all this means for Spurs and Spurs fans is our high line and attacking football are not naiveté; they’re part of a tactical trend that’s at this point in the Premier League the only way a team can seriously contend at the top of the table.
This doesn’t mean that Spurs have no tactical or personnel tweaks or improvements to make, but that playing aggressive, high-pressing, counterpressing, possession-dominating football is not just some thing you get away with as a hegemon (like Celtic) in lesser leagues; it’s the only way to win the Premier League.
What this also means is that Spurs’ defensive problems last season, while frustrating for fans on the heels of being so defensively abysmal in 2022-23, is not quite as bad as it looks. Again, when Spurs conceded 63 goals in 2022-23, they were near the relegation pack in that statistic (6th most conceded in the league). When Spurs conceded 61 goals last season, that was the 8th fewest conceded in the league. Of course it needs to be better for any side with serious aspirations at the top of the table, but that’s a major contextual shift in what it means to concede that many goals.
So, this is the context going into 2024-25. In my next post in this series I’ll discuss why and how I expect Spurs to improve their defensive play while maintaining an aggressive high line and playing front-foot, possession-dominant football.